Cuyahoga (Cleveland) OH data weirdness

There's some issues in the Cuyahoga County election data. By "issues" I mean, not obvious indefensible errors like seeing 600 voters resulting in 4000 votes (as was reported in Franklin County, Gahanna 1B), but the data looks beyond the realm of realistic possibility.  And these particular Cuyahoga issues, if straightened out, add about 580+ votes to Kerry. These issues have been pointed out by others elsewhere, but I don't think a strong case has been made.. or that there has been any follow-up.

First off, most OH counties give county-wide summary results. Many of these summaries can be accessed via an index here. Four of the counties give precinct-level data. These are Frankin (Columbus),Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Butler(north of Cincinnati), and Lucas (Toledo). It looks like Franklin has already taken it's report off the web (though many of us already have the 414pg precinct-level data). Cuyahoga appears to be rerunning their totals with Friday's run here. Cuyahoga also gives the precinct-level data from the Gore/Bush contest in 2000 here.  The Cuyahoga precinct maps are also there.

The data irregularies show up in the east side of Cleveland (that is, the part of Cleveland east of the Cuyahoga river - not "East Cleveland").  This area is represented by wards 1 through 10, with letters denoting the precincts within each ward (about 200 total precincts, each with roughly 500 registered voters).

This region is very democratic.  Gore beat Bush in these precincts 61,444 to 2,256 in 2000, about a 27-to-1 ratio (check the links above to verify... I'm not including absentee ballots).  Kerry beat Bush in these precincts by 74,934 to 3,816 in 2004, about a 22-to-1 ratio. It is no surprise that in 2004, Kerry took the median precinct with 96% of the vote here, nor is it surprising that he won 3/4 of the precincts by at least 94%.

The precincts that stand out are the following 7:


precinct     BAD BC K/E PER Bal Sp %Kerry
CLEVELAND 4F   0 21 290 215 554 28 55.1
CLEVELAND 4N 163 11 318   7 507  8 63.7
CLEVELAND 5B   0 12  74  16 102  0 72.5
CLEVELAND 8G  51 19 225   1 305  9 76.0
CLEVELAND 3I   1 13 464  70 567 19 84.7
CLEVELAND 8I   0  8 245  27 318 38 87.5
CLEVELAND 3B  41 17 456   1 533 18 88.5
Bad is Badnarik, BC is Bush/Cheney, K/E Kerry Edwards, Per is Peroutka. Bal is the total number of ballots cast, and Sp are the number of spoiled ballots for the presidential race.

In each of these precincts, either Badnarik or Peroutka received a disproportionately high number of votes (as if one or more voting booths at these locations were labelled incorrectly, or some levers punched the wrong column). It's not like people in this urban area will be drawn to the Texan Badnarik or the Constitution Party's Peroutka. If you take these 580+ votes in these 7 precints away, these two guys received 260 votes in all other 200 precincts in these 10 wards in the east side of Cleveland (an average of 1.3 third-party votes per precinct). Again, this is in a region where it is surprising if Kerry receives less than 90% of the vote (in each of these precincts, Bush is still receiving 2-6% of the vote, except for 5B where he gets 11%). It's not possible to argue that these third-party votes were meant for Bush.. he rarely received more than 5% in any of the 200 east-side Cleveland precincts.

Because this is such an extreme case, it's an easy argument that these 580+ voters were disenfranchised by either bad equipment or by being deceived... and that these votes are meant for Kerry.

Lastly, this shows how useful it is to have precinct-level data publically available.  I suspect the data irregularities are much more likely to show up in the rural areas..and in counties that are not confident enough to publically publish the data.


Display:


Please post corresponding 2000 data (none / 0)

If you have it, please post the corresponding 2000 data for these precincts, so we can be absolutely sure the flow went from Kerry to Badnarik/Peroutka, rather than from Bush.
by Winger on Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 09:22:16 PM EST

Re: Please post corresponding 2000 data (none / 0)

Data from 2000 for the same precincts (I'm don't know if there's been any tweaking of the precinct boundaries between 2000 and 2004)

    LIB BUC BC  G/L NAT NAD PH bal  Sp  %Gor  %BC
 4F  0   0  28  377  0  2   4  428  17  92.7  6.8
 4N  1   0   3  315  1  0   0  330  10  98.4  0.1
 5B  0   0   9  172  1  8   0  202  12  90.5  4.7
 8G  0   3   1  241  2  3   0  265  15  96.4  0.0
 3I  1   1   2  352  1  2   0  380  21  97.8  0.0
 8I  0   0   0  267  1  0   0  281  13  99.6  0.0
 3B  0   0   2  244  0  1   2  263  14  98.0  0.0
LIB - HARRY BROWNE/ART OLIVIER
BUC BUCHANAN/EZOLA FOSTER      
BC - GEORGE W  BUSH/DICK CHENEY
G/L - AL GORE/JOSEPH LIEBERMAN    
NAT - JOHN HAGELIN/NAT GOLDHABER
NAD - RALPH NADER/WINONA LaDUKE
PH - HOWARD PHILLIPS/J  CURTIS FRAZIER

by zigzig on Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 09:46:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

good work (none / 0)

keep it up.
turn over every rock and  
let's see what crawls out.
by Woody on Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 10:05:00 PM EST

I'd Been Looking At These Today (none / 0)

So thanks for the local background info. I was using a benchmark of surrounding precincts, plus the County Recorder's race. But it's always best to hear from someone local.
by Paul Rosenberg on Sun Nov 07, 2004 at 02:13:29 AM EST

Is it true... (none / 0)

I read that there's an inverse correlation between percent voter turnout and percent of support for Kerry in Cuyahoga. That doesn't make sense, because it seems to me it's the pattern you'd expect if the GOP was doing a great job of mobilizing people, but Cuyahoga was where ACT and MoveOn was doing all its GOTV stuff to get out the Kerry vote. I haven't checked the numbers yet myself to see if the inverse correlation is for real, but I wonder, and if it is for real, what explanation could there be?
by kvh on Sun Nov 07, 2004 at 10:37:53 PM EST

Re: Is it true... (none / 0)

p.s. I mean they said that in precincts with higher turnout, the % that went to Kerry was lower. So it has to be plotted precinct by precinct. Could the fact that there are almost 25,000 provisionals in Cuyahoga have anything to do with it?
by kvh on Sun Nov 07, 2004 at 10:39:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

EIRS data (none / 0)

There were numerous complaints in Cleveland where the caller reported that

  1. the ballots didn't fit into the machines propertly or lined up badly with the candidates,

  2. the punch card machines were defective or the stylus broke,

  3. pollworkers were handling ballots improperly by  refusing to put the completed ballot into the ballot box and stacking them on tables,

  4. breaking the seal on the ballot box,

  5. "chad buildup" made it impossible to punch the cards through

  6. huge number of machine breakdowns, such as 12 machines for several precincts with 7 broken and only 5 operational.

Specifically at 8G there was a complaint that "Mixed up machines configured for different precincts despite workers' complaints; site director disregarded warnings."

In 3B "long lines, 3 plus hrs. confusion in voting area over which precinct to go to, polling staff is very confusing. reported to brd of elections & hotline"

Precinct 4N is 95% African American and I can't imagine that 163 voters would vote for the Libertarian.  In that precinct, the Democratic challenger was not allowed in.

Source: https://voteprotect.org/epc/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&tab=ALL

by Phredd on Wed Nov 24, 2004 at 06:13:16 AM EST


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